The India Today-CVoter tracker still puts the NDA comfortably ahead of a Lok Sabha majority, but the margins on almost every measure have tightened since the start of the year.
The latest edition of India Today’s long-running Mood of the Nation survey shows the ruling National Democratic Alliance retaining a commanding position ahead of the next general election, even as several of its key numbers have slipped compared to earlier readings this year. Conducted by CVoter among nearly 117,000 respondents, the August 2026 poll points to a political landscape that remains tilted firmly toward the BJP-led coalition, but with visibly less breathing room than it had just seven months ago.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, whose approval ratings were compared in the latest Mood of the Nation survey
The Headline Numbers
If Lok Sabha elections were held today, the survey projects the NDA winning 326 seats, comfortably clear of the 272 required for a majority in the 543-member house. That figure, however, marks a drop of 26 seats from the 352 the same survey projected back in January, suggesting some erosion in the coalition’s projected strength even as its overall dominance remains intact.
Within that tally, the BJP is projected to emerge as the largest single party with 261 seats, itself down from 287 in January, though still comfortably ahead of the 240 seats the party actually won in the 2024 general election. The opposition INDIA bloc, meanwhile, is projected at 185 seats, a modest improvement from 182 in the previous survey, with the Congress component of that bloc estimated at 106 seats.
Vote Share Tells a Similar Story
The seat projections are mirrored in the survey’s vote share estimates. The NDA is pegged at 45.1 percent, down from 47 percent in January, while the INDIA bloc’s projected vote share held almost steady at 39.1 percent, barely moved from 39 percent in the earlier survey. Even with the decline, the NDA’s projected vote share remains above the 44 percent the alliance actually secured in the 2024 election, underlining that the coalition still retains a meaningful cushion despite the narrowing trend.
The Sharpest Shift Is Personal, Not Party-Based
Perhaps the most striking movement in the survey lies not in seat projections but in personal approval numbers. Asked for their preferred choice for prime minister, 48.7 percent of respondents named Narendra Modi, a steep fall from the 58 percent recorded in January. Rahul Gandhi’s numbers moved in the opposite direction, climbing from 24 percent to 27.1 percent over the same period. Perhaps more notable still is the jump in those unwilling to commit to either leader, with the share of respondents choosing “others, none, or can’t say” rising from 18 percent to 24.2 percent, a signal of growing indecision among a meaningful slice of the electorate.
Reading the Numbers in Context
The Mood of the Nation survey has tracked these preferences at regular intervals since well before the 2024 election, and its findings have moved considerably across different readings over the years. The August 2025 edition of the same tracker, published roughly a year into the current Modi government’s third term, had already flagged a narrowing gap between the NDA and the opposition following a period that included the Operation Sindoor military action and trade tensions tied to US tariffs. Seen against that backdrop, the latest figures continue a pattern of gradual tightening rather than marking a single dramatic shift, even if the scale of Modi’s personal approval drop this round stands out compared to previous editions.
A Coalition Still Built for Comfort
None of this changes the immediate arithmetic facing India’s opposition. Even at its reduced projection, the NDA’s 326-seat tally would deliver a comfortable governing majority, and the BJP’s standalone total of 261 seats would still exceed what the party managed on its own in the last actual election. The survey’s numbers suggest an electorate growing somewhat more divided in its preferences rather than one swinging decisively toward the opposition, leaving the fundamental balance of power largely undisturbed for now.
What Bears Watching From Here
With the next general election still years away, a single survey reading is unlikely to reshape political strategy overnight, but the consistency of the narrowing trend across three consecutive editions gives both camps something to think about. For the BJP, the challenge will be arresting the gradual softening in personal approval before it hardens into a broader shift in vote share. For the opposition, converting rising indecision among voters into concrete gains for Rahul Gandhi and the INDIA bloc remains the more difficult task, one that recent numbers suggest is still very much a work in progress.
